Will Microsoft make it to 2045

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I recently read the article about Microsoft founder Bill Gates giving away 99% of his wealth by 2045 and closing his foundation. This seems like a pretty clear thought through decision. The link is below https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/magazine/bill-gates-foundation-closing-2045.html

While closing the Gates Foundation is a noble idea, it raised a key question for me: how is it funded? With $77.2 billion in assets and plans to give away $200 billion, this assumes Microsoft remains highly profitable through 2045. That led me to examine Microsoft’s VBE (Value, Business, Ecosystem) model—the foundation of any company’s long-term viability. When a VBE model weakens, a company risks irrelevance or collapse. This video explains what VBE models are and how companies like Apple have used them for over 200 years to dominate new markets.

The background to the Microsoft story is as follows.Microsoft once dominated the software industry with a 98% market share, thanks to a strong VBE (Value, Business, Ecosystem) model. A VBE model that it had stumbled on unknowingly. However, the rise of the internet introduced new players like Google and AWS, and Microsoft struggled to adapt. While it remained strong in software and moved into cloud services, both areas now face fierce competition.

Microsoft's biggest misstep was in mobile. Despite its software dominance, it failed to establish a compelling VBE model for mobile—unlike Apple with iOS and Google with Android who built up accepted ecsystems of app developers and users who used the apps for their data needs. Its attempt to re-enter by acquiring Nokia failed, as it hadn’t built the necessary ecosystem and getting Nokia to build an ecosystem was bound to fail. . Without a robust mobile VBE model, Microsoft lost its foothold in that space.

A similar shift is emerging in cloud, data, and search: moving from ad-driven freemium models (like Google and Facebook) to a new paradigm where individuals own and trade their data—ushering in the era of Virtual Ownership. .

Microsoft faces two key challenges: it lacks presence in mobile (dominated by iOS and Android) and trails Amazon’s AWS in cloud market share. Meanwhile, emerging technologies like AI search—offering more precise results than Google—signal a shift. But these new models lack a strong VBE (Value, Business & Ecosystem) foundation to compete with Google's ad-driven model. All companies, from startups to giants like Microsoft, rely on a solid VBE model to thrive. What a VBE model is see is explained in this video. https://youtu.be/2f5FXiRkAuc?si=hkC9SrpphziBYxnL and how Apple used the VBE model to enter a market it was never in and dominate is here https://youtu.be/sXiKeSmpLlQ?si=wy5tgAu-3fZ5YpJv

The current data monetization model—used by Google and Facebook—offers free services in exchange for user data, which they profit from. This is changing. AI-driven search like ChatGPT offers better results than Google, but faces two hurdles: ease of access and a sustainable revenue model to compete with Google's ad-funded system.

The AI search model, like ChatGPT, may outperform Google in quality but lacks a revenue-driving VBE (Value, Business, Ecosystem) model. Currently, it relies on Microsoft’s funding—$13B invested and a 49% profit share—but sustainability is uncertain without income. Google, too, faces challenges as it adapts its ad-funded model (Gemini AI). This brings us to the question of how is Open AI going to develop revenue streams from Open AI and generate profits.

This shift points to a larger transition: from Web 2.0’s centralized, ad-driven data economy to Web 3.0 and eventually Web 4.0, which emphasizes decentralization, AI, and virtual data ownership. Future revenue models will center around users owning and monetizing their own data, ending the era of “free” platforms funded by exploiting personal information.

Companies that fail to realign their VBE models around data ownership—like Google, Facebook, or even Microsoft—may not survive the next 20 years. Of today's trillion-dollar tech giants, only those with adaptive, grounded leadership (e.g., Nvidia’s Jensen Huang or Berkshire’s Warren Buffett) may still thrive in 2045. The future belongs to those who truly understand and evolve with the next wave of data economics.

The next generation of collaboration would require virtual Ownership of data, by the users who generate them. And understanding that revenue model is where the company of the future will be. I am sure I will not see many of the companies which are giants today with a 1 trillion market valuation in 2045. There are 7 in the list there,

1. Microsoft @2.68 Trillion Market cap

2. Apple @2.67 Trillion Market Cap,

3. Nvidia @2.44 Trillion Market Cap,

4. Amazon @1.85 Trillion Market Cap,

5. Alphabet (Google) @1.79 trillion Market Cap,

6. Meta (Facebook) @1.31 Trillion Market Cap

7. Berkshire Hathaway @ 1.07Trillion Market Cap.

I predict that companies failing to adapt their VBE models to the new era of data ownership and communication will fall off the trillion-dollar list. Based on leadership styles and strategic direction, I believe Apple and Meta may not make it to 2045. However, leaders like Jensen Huang (Nvidia) and Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) may sustain their companies. Amazon could also thrive if Bezos-like leadership continues. The real challenge is for Microsoft, Alphabet, and others to evolve their VBE models over the next 20 years. Send me your predictions on which company from the 7 listed above will be in business.

To explore VBE models further, visit www.geoownconsulting.com.